Sheffield Electorate Forecast 2010-18
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  • Map resources:
  • Large Sheffield map
  • Small Sheffield map
  • Sheffield ward maps
  • 2013 Electorate variances
  • 2018 Electorate variances
  • Outline Sheffield map
  • 2013 Electorate map
  • Subdistrict electorate maps

  • Background data:
  • 2013 electorate
  • Council size/number of wards
  • Electorate forecast
  • Overview
  • 2-member wards
  • Tidying up/fixing errors
  • Tidying up Broomhill

  • Previous Reviews:
  • 2011 Parliamentary Review
  • 2004 Parliamentary Review
  • 2002 Ward Boundary Review

  • External links:
  • Sheffield City Council
  • Boundary Commission
  • VoteUK discussion
  • This is my projection of individual ward electorates based on Sheffield City Council and Office of National Statistics/Census figures. I will update it when the City Council publish the official data, but it is a working set of data to start from.

    Forecast.xls: full Excel spreadsheet.


    Forecast Forecast
    2013 2017 2018
    Electorate Varience Electorate Varience Electorate Varience
    Arbourthorne 13508 93.60% 15085 97.80% 15479 98.70%
    Beauchief & Greenhill 13867 96.10% 14039 91.00% 14082 89.80%
    Beighton 13385 92.80% 13646 88.40% 13711 87.50%
    Birley 13030 90.30% 13415 87.00% 13512 86.20%
    Broomhill 13311 92.30% 13520 87.60% 13572 86.60%
    Burngreave 16055 111.30% 17885 115.90% 18342 117.00%
    Central 20855 144.50% 24660 159.80% 25611 163.40%
    Crookes 14099 97.70% 14648 94.90% 14785 94.30%
    Darnall 16000 110.90% 18217 118.10% 18771 119.70%
    Dore & Totley 13615 94.40% 14081 91.30% 14198 90.60%
    East Ecclesfield 14573 101.00% 14995 97.20% 15100 96.30%
    Ecclesall 14994 103.90% 15645 101.40% 15808 100.80%
    Firth Park 14498 100.50% 16315 105.70% 16769 107.00%
    Fulwood 14365 99.60% 14752 95.60% 14849 94.70%
    Gleadless Valley 14667 101.60% 15947 103.40% 16267 103.80%
    Graves Park 13634 94.50% 14239 92.30% 14390 91.80%
    Hillsborough 14103 97.70% 14916 96.70% 15120 96.40%
    Manor & Castle 13859 96.00% 16674 108.10% 17378 110.80%
    Mosborough 13822 95.80% 14183 91.90% 14273 91.00%
    Nether Edge 13645 94.60% 14551 94.30% 14778 94.30%
    Richmond 13455 93.20% 14358 93.10% 14584 93.00%
    Shiregreen & Brightside 14721 102.00% 16554 107.30% 17013 108.50%
    Southey 13882 96.20% 14573 94.50% 14746 94.10%
    Stannington 14486 100.40% 15203 98.50% 15382 98.10%
    Stocksbridge & Upper Don 14711 102.00% 15082 97.80% 15175 96.80%
    Walkley 14926 103.40% 15704 101.80% 15899 101.40%
    West Ecclesfield 14376 99.60% 15072 97.70% 15246 97.20%
    Woodhouse 13572 94.10% 14036 91.00% 14152 90.30%
    SHEFFIELD TOTAL 404014 431996 438991
    Varience outside 10% shown in bold.

    Methodology

    I have projected each ward's electorate using a similar method to the projections I made in 2002. Those projections have turned out to be close to actual reality, and were more accurate than the City Council's initial projections. Based on this I believe that these projections are sufficiently accurate for the task in hand.

    Sheffield City Council (link) and the Office of National Statistics/Census (link) have published projections of Sheffield's total population from 2011 to 2021. The electorate is a proportion of this total population, essentially the adult population within the full population. That proportion is about 71% of the total population, and has been slowly creeping upwards since before 2000.

    Projecting from the electorate at 68% of the total propulation in 2000, through 72% in 2013, I have conservatively projected the 2018 electorate to be about 75% of the total population. This is the result of the population as a whole having fewer under-18s compared to over-18s as the general population profile ages. This is confirmed in ONS/Census statistics and projections.

    That projected total electorate calculated from SCC/ONS/Census projections is very close to the total electorate from summing each projected ward electorate.

    Each ward's electorate cannot be projected as a simple fraction of the city electorate, as some wards are increasing and some are decreasing, all at different rates. I have projected each ward electorate in isolation from other wards. I have done this by taking a projection from each of the three years prior to 2013 through 2013 to 2017 and 2018. I have then averaged each of these three projections to come to the actual projection.

    No projection can be 100% accurate, but I am confidant that this is accurate enough for the task in hand, which will be aiming to get ward totals within less than 10%, and ideally less than 5% of each other.

    Full data is in the Forecast.xls Excel spreadsheet.


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